‘Base’ ball in Kyrgyzstan, By Ameen Izzadeen

The troubles in Kyrgyzstan appear to be far from over, although an opposition-led government is firmly in the saddle and the president has fled to neighbouring Kazakhstan last night.

A tense situation prevailed in the country till president Kurmanbek Bakiye resigned yesterday. His resignation and departure came as the provisional government led by the country’s opposition called for his resignation and surrender before the armed forces were sent to his southern home town to arrest him.

The opposition says corruption, nepotism and economic woes were the cause of last week’s uprising but the games that big-powers play in the region are also a major contributor. Before we delve deeper into big-power politics, here is a brief account of Kyrgyzstan:

Kyrgyzstan is the second poorest nation in Central Asia — after Tajikikstan. The economic woes of the country are endless. In the 1990s, as a newly-independent country, it did not know how to organize itself economically. It went on a borrowing spree and ended up in a debt trap.

Its main exports are dairy products. It is the only Central Asian country that has no oil. It is rich in minerals, but they lie unexploited because the Kyrgyz government lacks the technology and money to invest in large-scale mining. Attempts to woo foreign firms have also not yielded results because transporting the minerals through the unmotorable mountainous region of the landlocked country is a major problem.

The country is, however, blessed with enough water which it uses as a diplomatic and trade weapon. Neighbouring Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan depend heavily on the water that comes from Kyrgyzstan along irrigation canals built by the Soviets. Often moves by Uzbekistan or Kazakhstan to stop oil and gas supply over non-payment of dues are met by Kyrgyzstan’s threat to cut off water supplies.

Russians constitute 13 percent of the population but the influence they wield is disproportionately bigger than their number. It is because the Russians are relatively better educated and being protected by Moscow. They occupied top positions during the Soviet era and continue to enjoy this privilege because a majority of the other citizens — the Kyrgyz, the Uzbeks and the Tajiks — prefer cultivation and farming to jobs in administration or factories.

Kyrgyzstan is the only country which has both a US military base and a Russian military base.

Also in the picture is China, Kyrgyzstan’s immediate neighbor in the east. The two countries share a 533 kilometre-long border. China is Kyrgyzstan’s main trading partner and is certainly worried about the US base in its backyard. It is also disturbed by Kyrgyzstan being used by Uighur rebels fighting for autonomy in China’s Xinjiang province. Kyrgyzstan is also of strategic value to China because it is through pipelines to be built across Kyrgyzstan that China wants to bring oil from Central Asia.

Also sharing common borders with Kyrgyzstan are Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan — all rich in oil and natural gas. Afghanistan, where the United States-led NATO troops are fighting Taliban and al-Qaeda rebels, lies an hour’s flight away from the US’ base at Manas in Kyrgyzstan.

Manas, by the way, is also the name of a Kyrgyz hero who lived centuries ago. Legend says he rode a winged horse and achieved incredible victories against his enemies. Manas is also the name of an epic poem — the world’s longest in terms of number of verses — that tells the Kyrgyz story.

Given the geopolitics of resource-rich Central Asia, the big power game that is being played there is indeed a continuation of the Great Game or power struggle between Russia and Great Britain in the 19th century. In the present Great Game, the United States has replaced Britain while Russia has the support of China. Regional powers Russia and China see the US base in Manas as more of a threat to them than a facility that helps US operations in Afghanistan.

The Russians and the Chinese question the US need for a US base in Kyrgyzstan, a country that shares no border with Afghanistan. They believe that the Manas base is more a US spying post to monitor Chinese and Russian military activities. Analysts say the US, by maintaining a military presence in Kyrgyzstan, is killing three birds with one shot: It seeks to check the growing Russian and Chinese influence in the region, it protects US oil interests in the region and it facilitates the military operations in Afghanistan.

Under pressure from China and Russia, Kyrgyz President Bakiyev on February 20 signed a bill into law to close the Manas base. The bill which received the opposition’s full support called on the US to close the base within 180 days.

But it did not happen that way. Bakiyev deferred the deadline and the US rewarded the move by increasing economic aid and rent for the base while an angry Russia felt betrayed and bided its time. It is in this context that some analysts say Russia had a hand in last week’s opposition-led coup.

Omurbek Tekebayev, the constitutional affairs minister in the opposition-led government, told Reuters: “You’ve seen the level of Russia’s joy when they saw Bakiyev gone. So now there is a high probability that the duration of the US air base’s presence in Kyrgyzstan will be shortened.”

It is no secret that Russia is jubilant. Its carefully-crafted statements show that Moscow is happy that Bakiyev is gone. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Wednesday said: “Kyrgyzstan’s political problems were an internal affair, but that the economic and social situation in the country was critical. According to the provisional government, the treasury is empty; the previous leadership has embezzled, pilfered and ruined everything. It’s not up to us to judge it, but we’ve always had special relations with the Kyrgyz people, and we certainly must support our friends in a difficult moment.”

Couched in these words are Russia’s support for the coup and its dislike for Bakiyev.

The United States probably did not expect such a turn of events that had a Russian hand, a week after Washington and Moscow signed a historic treaty on strategic arms control. Besides, it was only months ago that the United States placated Russia by abandoning its plans to install anti-missile missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic. Moscow had insisted that the missile defence system was aimed at Russia rather than states such as Iran and North Korea.

The United States on Wednesday sent Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake to the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek to hold urgent talks. Both sides said the talks did not cover the Manas base. But a few took their statements seriously. One of the measures the United States took in the wake of last week’s coup was to send a message to opposition leader Roza Otunbayeva seeking an assurance from her that the Manas base would stay. Washington also agreed to increase the rent by an undisclosed amount. Although Otunbayeva said there were no plans to review the Manas agreement, indications are that the base will go unless Moscow and the United States reach a deal regarding the US military presence in Central Asia.

In July 2005, the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — a grouping that brings together Russia, China and the Central Asian countries other than Turkmenistan — called on the United States to leave the region. Accordingly, Uzbekistan closed the US base but poverty-ridden Kyrgyzstan, whose per capita income was a mere US$ 590, could not. Caught between the US money and demands from Russia and China, President Bakiyev tried to make the best of the both worlds. To please the Russians, he vowed last year that the Manas base would be closed and got Russian economic aid amounting to US$ 2 billion. Then he turned to the US and got the Americans to increase their rent from US$ 17m to US $60m a year and extended the lease for another year until this July. The US also increased its economic package to the country.

The question that looms large is not whether the interim government or the next government can strike a balance between Russia and the US, but whether it has any choice. Kyrgyzstan is an example that shows that state sovereignty and political independence are not concepts associated with poor countries.