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Thiruvenkadam Veluppillai Prabhakaran is no more. The body of the 54-year-old supreme leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam(LTTE) was found on Tuesday May 19 near the Mullaitivu lagoon known as “Nanthikkadal” (sea of conches). He had gunshot wounds in the head and forehead.
Thus ended the life of the man who was once described by the LTTE’s political strategist, Anton Stanislaus Balasingham, as both “the president and prime minister of Tamil Eelam.” Army commander Sarath Fonseka announced the death officially at 12.15 pm on the 19th.
Sooriyathevan
The ephemeral nature of power was illustrated vividly by the death of Prabhakaran who controlled what was perhaps the most powerful guerilla organization in the world and was raised to divine status as “Sooriyathevan” (Sun God) by his sycophantic followers.
The circumstances of his death were, just as in life, mired in controversy. His demise was anticipated before it happened. The discovery of his corpse was revealed in sections of the media even before it was found. Then the LTTE’s chief of International relations, Selvarasa Pathmanathan alias KP issued a denial of the death of his leader.
This has resulted in a bizarre situation where the Tamil diaspora remains overtly calm and cool while the media in Sri Lanka and abroad are going to town with news of his death as well as obituaries . Ironic indeed !
This piece is neither a biography nor an eulogy. It is not even a critique or analysis. What I hope to do is to try and shed some light at least on Prabhakaran’s death.
I have attempted to piece together the events preceding his demise and compile a brief account of his last days from various “informed” sources on either side of the ethnic divide.
Assessment
It appears that Prabhakaran and the LTTE had not been unduly concerned about the advancing Armed forces for quite a while. The Tigers were confident that the army would not be able to proceed beyond a certain point.
This assessment got skewered after the fall of Paranthan which was a major turning point. Paranthan was followed by Kilinochchi and then Elephant pass.
The hasty evacuation of cadres trapped in the peninsula through a “mini – Dunkirk” type of operation indicated that the Tigers were indeed caught napping.
Even after losing the Jaffna – Kandy road or A – 9 highway and all areas to its west the LTTE was yet confident of withstanding the army for a much longer period in areas east of the A – 9 highway.
The final option was to “carve” out an area of about 350 – 450 sq km in Mullaitivu district with access to the coast and then defend it strenuously.
But the rapid progress of the Army during this phase took the LTTE by surprise. Within a relatively quick period the various military divisions and task forces had made sweeping strides into Tiger territory.
As a result the LTTE and hundreds of thousands of civilians were boxed into a small space that kept on shrinking as the army began advancing.
Miscalculations
It was then that the alarm bells began ringing. The civilian casualty toll also started rising as more and more people were crammed into less and less land while the armed forces intensified operations.
Now the diaspora got into the act. Tamils began engaging in world–wide protests and demonstrations. There was a powerful intensity to these. Tamil Nadu too started boiling. New Delhi was under pressure.
It was here that Prabhakaran made four grave miscalculations. Underestimating in two and overestimating in two.
He overestimated the impact and influence of the diaspora in the west and the pro – tiger lobby in Tamil Nadu. The unfolding civilian catastrophe was his trump card.
Prabhakaran thought the western nations could be made to exert adequate pressure on Colombo and make it call off the war. Likewise he thought the passionate emotions of Tamil Nadu could sway New Delhi into moving against the war.
If these were overestimating errors, he also underestimated badly the Rajapaksa regime as well as the armed forces.
Prabhakaran did not expect the armed forces to keep on progressing relentlessly as they did. But despite heavy losses the military juggernaut kept on rolling forward.
More importantly he expected President Mahinda Rajapaksa would cave into pressure and call it quits. Then again Rajapaksa too did not succumb and went ahead with the military campaign.
